EURUSD to continue climb?

• EUR/USD is near four-week high, sixth daily gain possible?
   
• Germany's exports fell, but EUR/USD closed positive
   
• French election's left-wing win relieved EUR/USD
   
• US inflation data due Thursday could trigger volatility

The EUR/USD pair may be on track for its sixth consecutive daily gain as it trades near its four-week high. Despite Germany's lower export reading (-3.6% actual vs. +1.7% previous), the EUR/USD managed to close in positive territory yesterday.
 

The second round of the French parliamentary election has also influenced the EUR/USD. The unexpected victory of the left-wing New Popular Front provided some relief.

On the macroeconomic front, investors are anticipating 1-2 interest rate cuts by the ECB this year, which will heavily depend on consumer price dynamics.
 

Markets are now bracing for key data releases in the United States. The core and headline US inflation readings are expected to reach 3.4% YoY and 3.3% YoY, respectively.
 

Significant deviations from these estimates could lead to higher levels of volatility.

From a technical perspective…

The EUR/USD is currently trading above the major simple moving averages (21-, 50-, and 100-period SMAs), suggesting a strong bullish trend in the short- and medium-term.

The relative strength index is in the neutral zone (<30 – oversold; >70 – overbought).

Potential resistance levels:

• 1.08450 – 1st pivot point
   
• 1.08526 – 1-month high
   

Potential support levels:

• 1.08027 – 1st pivot point
   
• 1.07950 – 100-period SMA