This Week: GBPUSD to trade within 1.2243 – 1.2519

GBPUSD soared to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after Friday’s lower-than-expected NFP and the higher US unemployment rate.

Pound bulls also cheered after the Bank of England pushed back against talks of UK rate cuts, while markets perceive that the Fed is done with its own hikes.

Bloomberg’s FX model predicts that GBPUSD is likeliest to trade within the 1.2243 – 1.2519 range this week.

With a chorus of Fed speak lined up, coupled with a UK data dump before the weekend, any shift in expectations for either the Fed or BOE’s rates path should translate into GBPUSD moves.

Events Watchlist
 

• Tuesday-Friday, November 7-10: Speeches by Fed officials

At least 6 different Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are due to make public comments fresh after their unanimous decision to keep US interest rates unchanged.

If these central bankers are unable to push back against market expectations that the Fed is done with its rate hikes, that could boost GBPUSD higher.
 

• Wednesday, November 8th: Speech by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey

Governor Bailey has already spoken out against market bets for a steeper rate cut trajectory for the UK in 2024.

Yet, markets have refused to buy it.

As long as markets doubt Bailey’s tough talk, it would limit GBPUSD’s upside.

Note also that BOE chief economist Huw Pill is due to speak separately on Monday and Thursday as well.
 

• Friday, November 10th: UK data dump

The UK is set to release a slew of economic data, including 3Q GDP, external trade, and industrial production figures.

GBP is forecasted to have contracted in the third quarter, setting a weaker base for the UK economy which the BOE expects to flatline in 2024.

An even-darker UK economic outlook may well drag GBPUSD lower.

Here’s comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Sunday, November 5

• US daylight savings time ends

Monday, November 6

• JPY: Bank of Japan meeting minutes
• AUD: Australia October inflation
• EUR: Germany September factory orders; Eurozone October services PMI (final)
• GBP: BoE chief economic Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, November 7

• CNH: China October external trade
• AUD: RBA rate decision
• EUR: Eurozone September PPI; Germany September industrial production
• USD: Speeches by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Wednesday, November 8

• EUR: ECB CPI expectations; Eurozone September retail sales
• GBP: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
• USD: Speech by New York Fed President John Williams
• Crude: EIA weekly inventories data delayed till next week
• Disney earnings

Thursday, November 9

• JPY: BOJ October summary of opinions
• CNH: China October CPI, PPI
• GBP: BoE chief economic Huw Pill speech
• USD: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
• USD: US weekly initial jobless claims

Friday, November 10

• NZD: New Zealand PMI
• EUR: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
• GBP: UK 3Q GDP; September industrial production, external trade
• USD: US November consumer sentiment; speeches by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic