WTI sinks into bear market!

Oil prices experienced a 4.47% decline yesterday (Thursday, November 16th) , following a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories (3.600M vs 1.793 expected).

Current prices are now over 20% below the recent intraday peak, which meets the textbook definition of a “bear market”.

An uplift in the US Crude production comes amid China’s slowdown in it’s oil refineries’ output. This underlines ongoing risks on the demand side from the world’s biggest oil consumer.

A low positioning of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.76 (<30 – oversold; >30 – overbought) may also translate into a technical pullup.

However, with WTI Crude currently trading way below all the major simple moving averages (SMAs), including the 200-period SMA at 77.956, may signal a strong downward trend.

Investors will now pay close attention to any macro-economic data which may shed light on the real demand prospects in Asia, while also keeping an eye on the developments in the Middle East.

If oil prices remain subdued over the coming week, that may force Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their production cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, in a bid to offer support for the likes of Brent and WTI.