This Week: US30 to hit a new record high?

• China’s tariffs on US goods begin today, Feb 10
   
• McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Cisco earnings ahead
   
• Fed Chair Powell’s testimony could sway markets
   
• US inflation data may impact Fed rate cut timing
   
• US retail sales could boost or drag US30 index

The past two Mondays have delivered market shockers: there was the DeepSeek selloff on Jan 27th, followed by Trump’s tariff turmoil on Feb 3rd.

What will the coming Monday bring? Another tariff-induced selloff across markets would mark a hattrick of manic Mondays to kick off a week that also features multiple top-tier events (more below).
 

All these could determine whether we see a new record high for the best-performing major US stock index so far in 2025: the US30.

Adding to the mix, tariff fears have driven investors toward safe-haven assets like the US dollar, pushing USDInd to test key resistance levels. Meanwhile, China's inflation surprise has fuelled a rally in CHINAH and HK50, both reaching fresh four-month highs.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Monday, Feb 10th: China’s tariffs on US goods to kick in

Barring a dramatic U-turn, starting Monday, China is set to impose a 15% levy on US energy imports, along with 10% tariffs on oil and agricultural equipment. Beijing’s tit-for-tat response to President Trump’s earlier tariff salvo could raise fears of a global trade war, in turn perhaps dragging risk assets, including stock indexes, lower.
 

• Monday-Wednesday, Feb 10-12th: 4Q earnings for McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Cisco

These are the 3 biggest US-listed companies with earnings announcements this week and the trio account for about 5.8% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by our US30 index. McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will report before US markets open on the 10th and 11th respectively, while Cisco will do the same after US markets close on the 12th. Better-than-expected earnings could push the US30 back above 45k.
 

• Tuesday-Wednesday, Feb 11th – 12th: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimonies to Congress

Markets will be eager to gleam any policy signals out of Chair Powell, regarding the timing of the Fed’s next rate cut. The US30 index could post a new record high should Chair Powell dilute concerns that Trump’s policies might revive US inflation, while suggesting that the next Fed rate cut could happen earlier than June 2025.
 

• Wednesday, Feb 12th: US January consumer price index (CPI)

The year-on-year figures for both headline and core CPI are expected to remain at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, with the month-on-month core CPI ticking higher to 0.3% from 0.2% in December. Still-stubborn US inflation that delays Fed rate cuts could see the US30 index tumbling back down towards the 44k mark/21-day SMA.
 

• Friday, Feb 14th: US January retail sales

Economists predict that retail sales in the world’s largest economy were flat (0%) in January, as cold weather kept shoppers indoors. Note that consumer discretionary and consumer staples stocks account for 18.6% of the “Dow”. A surprise retail sales boost could extend the US30’s year-to-date gains of 5.1% at the time of writing.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, February 10

• XAUCNH: China tariffs on US goods take effect
   
• McDonald’s earnings (before US markets open)
   

Tuesday, February 11

• AUD: Australia February consumer and business confidence
   
• MXN: Mexico December industrial production
   
• NOK: Norway 4Q GDP
   
• ZAR: South Africa December manufacturing production
   
• GBP: Speeches by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, and MPC member Catherine Mann
   
• USDInd: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, New York Fed President John Williams
   
• Coca-Cola earnings (before US markets open)
   

Wednesday, February 12

• US30 index: US January CPI
   
• USDInd: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
   
• Cisco earnings
   

Thursday, February 13

• JPY: Japan January PPI
   
• GER40 index: Eurozone December industrial production; Germany CPI (final)
   
• UK100 index: UK 4Q GDP; December industrial production, trade balance
   
• US400 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; January PPI
   

Friday, February 14

• NZD: New Zealand January manufacturing PMI
   
• EUR: Eurozone 4Q GDP, employment
   
• US400 index: US January retail sales, industrial production