Spain vs. England: Can Stock Indexes Predict Euro 2024 Winners?

• Spain vs England, Euro 2024 final on July 14
   
• Spain favored to win Euro 2024 final
   
• SPN35 up 10.38% YTD, UK100 up 6.88%
   
• SPN35 and UK100 both forecasted to rise about 13%

As England and Spain prepare to compete for Europe’s footballing crown this Sunday, July 14th, let’s take a look at how their stock markets have performed this year.

Stock indices 101

A stock index can be thought of as a basket of stocks, measuring the combined performance of the stocks within it.

The index’s price rises when the prices of the stocks in the basket increase and falls when they decrease.

SPN35 INDEX

ALPARI's SPN35 index tracks the performance of the IBEX 35 index, which includes the 35 most-liquid stocks traded on the Spanish Continuous exchange.

This index features major companies like Inditex (owner of brands such as Zara, Pull & Bear, and Massimo Dutti), energy giant Iberdrola, and Banco Santander – one of the EU’s largest banks by market value.
 

UK100 INDEX

ALPARI's UK100 index tracks the performance of the FTSE 100 index, which includes the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.

This index features global names like AstraZeneca, Shell, HSBC, Unilever, and British Petroleum.
 

Performance
 

Although these national football teams will compete for supremacy, their stock markets tell a different story.

Neither Spain’s nor England’s benchmark stock indexes top the continental charts. Here’s how European stock indices have performed so far in 2024:

• TOP 1 ­– NETH25 (+18.57%)
   
• TOP 2 – GER40 (+10.60%)
   
• TOP 3 – SPN35 (+10.38%)
   
• TOP 4 – EU50 (+9.89%)
   
• TOP 5 – UK100 (+6.88%)
   
• TOP 6 – FRA40 (+0.66%)

When compared globally, European stock indices have generally lagged behind their US and Asian counterparts:

• TWN (+28.70%)
   
• JP225 (+26.43%)
   
• NAS100 (+23.58%)
   
• US500 (+18.73%)

SPN35 vs UK100

Between the two Euro 2024 finalists' benchmark stock indexes, the SPN35 index has outperformed the UK100 index in 2024. This trend is expected to continue over the next 12 months:

• SPN35 is forecasted to climb another 13.6% on a 12-month horizon
   
• UK100 is forecasted to climb another 13.8% on a 12-month horizon

Market predictions vs. Football forecasts
 

The stock indexes seem to align with sports betting predictions, favoring Spain to beat England in the Euro 2024 final.

This is despite England being ranked higher (5th) in the FIFA Men’s World Ranking compared to Spain (8th).

However, there is a contrasting picture in the foreign exchange market.

The British Pound has strengthened by 3.08% against the Euro this year and is the only G10 currency with a year-to-date gain versus the US dollar:

• GBPUSD (+1.59%)
   
• EURUSD (-1.44%)

While anything can happen in the sporting final …

It’s important to note that financial markets are driven by fundamental factors such as macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and political risks, rather than sports events.

Similarly, football teams do not rely on stock markets for their preparations.
 

Regardless of the Euro 2024 final outcome, traders and investors can continue to trade the SPN35 and UK100 indexes, among other instruments, on ALPARI year-round.