This Week: USDInd to break out of its recent downtrend?

USDInd tracks the US dollar’s performance against a basket of its G10 peers, namely the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.

The “buck” just came off a Friday high, after the blowout headline US jobs figure eroded bets for two US rate cuts this year.

Yet, since forming a double top around 106.60, USDInd has only managed lower highs and lower lows, with the 104 mark offering strong support.
 

This week’s top-tier economic events could determine whether or not USDInd can take further strides towards 106 and break out of its recent downtrend.

Events Watchlist:
 

• Tuesday, June 11: UK May jobless claims, April unemployment rate

Note that the British Pound accounts for 11.9% of the USDInd. Hence, GBP’s reaction to UK economic data could have a major impact on USDInd.

Weaker-than-expected UK jobs data that brings forward the Bank of England’s rate cuts could weaken the Pound, while potentially boosting the USDInd towards the 105 handle.
 

• Wednesday, June 12: US May consumer price index (CPI), Federal Reserve rate decision

Lower-than-expected CPI could send USDInd plunging back towards 104, just hours before the US central bank is due to announce its latest policy decision.

And although the Fed is widely expected to leave its rates untouched this week, the dollar could swiftly recover if the Fed signals just one rate cut by year-end.

Such signals may arrive via the “dot plot”, latest economic forecasts, and/or Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
 

• Friday, June 14: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision

The Japanese Yen accounts for 13.6% of the USDInd. Hence, JPY’s reaction to the BoJ’s latest policy signals should have a major role to play in USDInd’s performance.

Although the BoJ is unlikely to hike rates this week, signs that this Asian central bank is readying to hike in July could strengthen the Yen and weigh down USDInd.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
 

Monday, June 10

• JP225 index: Japan GDP (final)
   
• Nvidia 10-for-1 stock split
   
• Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off
   

Tuesday, June 11

• AU200 index: Australia May business confidence
   
• GBP: UK May jobless claims
   
• EUR: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Robert Holzmann, and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane
   

Wednesday, June 12

• JPY: Japan May PPI
   
• CN50 index: China May CPI, PPI
   
• GE40 index: Germany May CPI (final)
   
• UK100 index: UK April GDP, industrial production
   
• USD index: US May CPI, Fed rate decision
   

Thursday, June 13

• TWN index: Taiwan rate decision
   
• AUD: Australia May unemployment
   
• EU50 index: Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance
   
• USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; May PPI; speech by New York Fed President John Williams
   

Friday, June 14

• NZD: New Zealand May manufacturing PMI
   
• JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision
   
• US30 index: US June consumer sentiment; speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee